The China-Taiwan war thread

Retro

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WARNING: this thread contains strong views by various members, so discretion is advised.

While China hasn't invaded Taiwan yet, I think it's only a matter of time now given the circumstances: surrounding Taiwan and firing missiles into the sea is a massive statement of intent, show of strength and intimidation among all the other things they're saying and doing. In particular, it's interesting that they have a similar pretext for doing so as Russia: "Taiwan is part of China and shouldn't be independently ruled". Sure.

And unlike Russia with Ukraine, I think China easily has the capability to take Taiwan quickly by force. I can't see the West coming to their aid against China the way they did against Russia as China is just too strong and well organized, plus Taiwan too small a landmass.

The consequences of a successful invasion for the West will be massive too: Taiwan is the "home" of high technology with lots of electronics manufactured there. On top of that, so much electrical and electronic stuff is made in China. Sanctions against China just aren't gonna be possible either as they've got the West by the short and curlies, much more so than Russia has.

Now, isn't China's timing interesting? Putin's ally wants to invade Taiwan just when the West is stressed out fighting Russia in Ukraine and hence at its weakest. It really is the game of Dictators v Democracy at play here, with deadly and profound consequences. As if the world didn't have enough problems already, we now get war with two tinpot dictators ffs.

For the latest news on the crisis / war, just view the home pages of any mainstream media site. Here's the two I use the most:


 

Tiffany

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Some have speculated whether if China will invade Taiwan before our after the US mid-terms. I believe if China was to invade Taiwan, they would do it before our mid-terms in November. My reasoning is China already has set up their forces in place and their horrific drills are a practice for their full invasion. I don't see them pulling back unless they regroup and refresh troops but I believe where they are placed is their strategy for the beginning of the invasion.

Agreed, this would not be happening now, if we weren't involved in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has put the US, Europe and NATO at a vulnerable place if China were to invade. I'm concerned about the chip technology too. What an easy way to cripple other countries by China taking over the chip industry in Taiwan.
 

Arantor

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I honestly don't know if the timing is that coincidental. The reality is that Western forces aren't nearly as tied up in Ukraine as they could be because they're not actively joining the battle. There's weapons supplies for sure, but no troops, no boots on the ground, limited heavy support - because if anything of major consequence were done this would absolutely escalate with reprisals from Russia.

Now, is it a diversion? Sure. The eyes of the West are watching the Ukraine/Russian situation. But not all of them - I suspect any real move into Taiwan was going to happen anyway, sooner or later. The only question was when - and there's enough other diversions going on that there's no real bad time to do this, but neither is there any good time to do this. There's always going to be incidents across the world that the West are getting involved in, they're very good at 'getting involved'. Perhaps too good. The Chinese will do what the Chinese will do, in spite of, or because of what the West does.

Asfor the economic consequences, I don't think it's that radical either way. The things that come out of Taiwan now will come out of China afterwards. Probably the single biggest actual consequence I can think of is Realtek; they make most of the on-motherboard sound card chips. China being involved may force a rethink on that in terms of integrating spyware at the hardware level.
 

Tiffany

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The US government is highly distracted right now by the Ukraine war, which was part of my thinking that if China would proceed with an invasion, I'm not sure we're ready, though we should be ready all the time. Without getting too political, our military has been focusing on other areas that overall weaken our military rather then strengthen it. We also have a very low enlistment rate right now because of our military's changes. I fear the big picture results because of the multitude of looming issues in military preparedness and a plan.
 

Tiffany

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This from the AP News this morning supporting your above news. @Retro I fear the same.

 

Crims

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If you guys done much research, China/they had a pyramid scheme named Evergrande regarding real estate. They're throwing around large numbers for how much debt they're in, but publically it's the most indebted company in the world at £250 billion.
Some people throw trillion in the actual hidden debt of China's number...
which will no doubt then spill out to the rest of us somehow with the 'unavoidable next recession'. it's likely they're doing this to distract from internal civil protests as they want to avoid previous protests.
 
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Tiffany

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@Crims I've been following the developments with Evergrande in business, as I like to keep up with what are possible issues long before it trends. Good concept on why China is drilling over in Taiwan so the people of China are distracted. When Evergrande fails, it will be big.
 

Retro

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It just keeps getting worse. It's always repressive regimes starting war with the West as they just can't stand our freedom.

 

Tiffany

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It just keeps getting worse. It's always repressive regimes starting war with the West as they just can't stand our freedom.


From your article:
The textbook, which highlights PLA strategy, states exercises can be directed at adversaries with the goal of "making them uncertain about our intentions and making it difficult to determine whether we are conducting routine training, maintaining close diplomatic relations, or taking the opportunity to move into actual combat operations,'" the China Power Project report quotes the textbook as saying.

Cat and mouse games are pretty dangerous these days unlike decades ago. With China constantly taunting Taiwan, the Taiwanese people can't even have any sort of normal as they are on constant edge wondering if China, the bully, will take more dramatic steps. Apparently, some Chinese missed some important grade school lessons about making friends. If China wanted to have Taiwan embrace more unity with China, China is going about it the wrong way, in my humble opinion by being threatening and all of their disruptive military drills. The Chinese government would get further diplomatically by talking rather then creating fear 24/7.
 

Retro

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Yeah, totally, Tiffs. When I read that passage I was quite disgusted with it. Typical warmongering BS and the Chinese are doing it for real.

It proves that China are really after oppressing Taiwan rather than "bringing them back into the fold".
 

Tiffany

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Yeah, totally, Tiffs. When I read that passage I was quite disgusted with it. Typical warmongering BS and the Chinese are doing it for real.

It proves that China are really after oppressing Taiwan rather than "bringing them back into the fold".

Well said! You can't bring a country "back into the fold" with brute force and violence. It's human nature to resist bad behavior.
 

live627

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And unlike Russia with Ukraine, I think China easily has the capability to take Taiwan quickly by force.
The island is naturally fortified by mountains basically everywhere except for a few beaches on the east side facing China which are easily guarded against. This means that any war will be long and brutal with guerilla-like tactics.
I can't see the West coming to their aid against China the way they did against Russia as China is just too strong and well organized, plus Taiwan too small a landmass.
The semiconductor industry is much too valuable to lose. The US will absolutely come to Taiwan's aid. Sidebar: they adhere to "strategic ambiguity", and, as such, try to keep up some confusion.
Now, isn't China's timing interesting?
No. The Chinese Communist Party were wanting to do this ever since the civil war with the Chinese Nationalist Party, who, upon losing the war, defected to an uninhabited island and are a now democracy with free elections. This has made the CCP ABSOLUTELY FURIOUS, seeing their rivals form what they view as a rebellious breakaway state that is richer per capita and more successful than they ever will be. Come home to daddy, pretty please. We will forever intimidate you, sorry, show force of how strong we are.

Taiwan is an independent country.
 

Retro

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The island is naturally fortified by mountains basically everywhere except for a few beaches on the east side facing China which are easily guarded against. This means that any war will be long and brutal with guerilla-like tactics.
While that may help, that remains to be seen. From what I can see, the Chinese military is much more modern and capable than the Russian one, so I don't think it would be that long, but I agree that it would be brutal - show me a war that isn't.

The semiconductor industry is much too valuable to lose. The US will absolutely come to Taiwan's aid. Sidebar: they adhere to "strategic ambiguity", and, as such, try to keep up some confusion.
Yes, America has a defense agreement with them, so I think their precise reaction would depend on a lot of factors - and an awful lot of politics, especially. I reckon it could get quite ugly.

No. The Chinese Communist Party were wanting to do this ever since the civil war with the Chinese Nationalist Party, who, upon losing the war, defected to an uninhabited island and are a now democracy with free elections. This has made the CCP ABSOLUTELY FURIOUS, seeing their rivals form what they view as a rebellious breakaway state that is richer per capita and more successful than they ever will be. Come home to daddy, pretty please. We will forever intimidate you, sorry, show force of how strong we are.

Taiwan is an independent country.
Yes, absolutely.

Yes, the Chinese were wanting "Taiwan back" for the longest time (I read that Wikipedia* article on this historical situation) and just needed a pretext to invade. The West is currently preoccupied with the Russia - Ukraine war to the point where it's trying to avoid WW3 and is also somewhat weakened by it too with all the sanctions and military activity helping Ukraine, so this is a good time to make the strike from China's perspective. Again, lots of variables come into play here, because they do an awful lot of trade with the West. And again, those pesky politics, plus Russia is an ally which will help to embolden them.

Look, in the end we're both speculating, so let's hope it doesn't come to war to see who was right or wrong and by what degree. I abhor war, I really do. And of course, no one cares about all the innocent animals that suffer and die due to these wars and are simply left to fend for themselves. That's another aspect of war that bothers me.

*Googling it now actually reveals several Wikipedia articles on this subject, so I don't know which one it was without wading through them or my browser history, which I'm not really inclined to do now.
 

Retro

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Still no war over two months later and China isn't supporting Russia's war so I'm feeling a little more optimistic at the moment.
 

Arantor

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We're entering that period where emotional fatigue is setting in where people don't really care any more, even though of course that's problematic.
 

Tiffany

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I think Putin has been banking on the general apathy of most people, betting subsequent burn-out as the modern human has far less patience and conviction then we did decades ago.

The pandemic is a perfect example. How many people reached their epic "I'm done with this" at a certain point and ditched their masks with no more regard for others?
 
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