I am looking at that photo of the bullet's flight path, and see it was at Trump's left side, yet he was hit on his right ear, which leads me to believe that this is the flight path before the bullet had hit anything at all.
The shooting was from his right. That path is after it passed behind his head and continued on towards the left side (as he was standing) of the platform.
As he turned his read to the right to look at a display to "make a point", from what I understand, is when the shots started. If he had not turned his head, it is very likely that round would have impacted him. At the velocity that round was traveling it doesn't take much to move it from it's trajectory. And with the speed that frame was, if it had hit his ear you would also see some material splatter following behind it.
The base trajectory is consistent with someone trying to take out the "main motor" junction of a human, the medulla oblongata. In the rifle course I went through, we were taught if we ever had a shot there to take it as it would shut the target down immediately as it cut all communications from the brain to the body.
Now looking at the video of the scene of the shooting, we see from the explanatory diagram, that the position of the shooter, on the rooftop, was in fact, to the left of Trump, where Trump was standing facing the bleachers.
No way could a shooter standing to the left of a three-dimensional target, hit the right side of said target.
No, the counter snipers were to Trumps left... the shooter was to Trumps right. Trump would be facing out to the open area of the field, not back towards the buildings, which is the way he would have to be if the shooter was on his left. In fact, remember, Trump was rushed off the right side of the stage as you looked at it, which would be Trumps left, which the image below clearly shows the positioning of that evacuation point.
So the right side of the head would be the correct impact point unless Trump did a 180° turn on stage, which he did not do.
You know, funny that you should say it may not have been a bullet that hit him after all. I thought the same; I wondered how it was possible for a round from a high velocity rifle to inflict such minor damage, even if just 'grazing' the flesh?
That was my point. I've worked several cases in my years and usually a grazing impact on a human body results in severe tearing of the skin. Even those that were "kissed" by it have noticeable damage. Usually the time you see minimal wounding on the impact point is when it is a main body hit or a smaller/slower caliber in a major muscle mass. But generally with a high velocity round the exit point in that main body mass is noticeable due to the yawing of the bullet.
This is also consistent when hunting. Seen many a deer "kissed" on the back by someone shooting to high the first shot and then getting on target the second shot. Those "kisses" along the top of the back usually ruin the tenderloin because of the tissue damage (that is not immediately fatal to the deer).
It is therefore feasible that the bullet, which was aimed at Trump's head, had completely missed him. It hit elsewhere on the right of the intended head. All that Trump was actually hit by, was a little old shrapnel.
It's more likely that was the first round and the other rounds tracked backwards towards the stage and one impacted a stand or something on the stage and caused fragmentation.
It is entirely possible that one of the rounds impacted one of the screens that are typically in front and to the sides of him (they may be a form of teleprompter) from an over-correction to the right.
I noticed that the one on the right of him was still standing upright, but the one on the left was not in view. Typically there is one to each side as in the image above. Without being on scene, I can't say if the one on the left was knocked down in the rush to get to him or if it suffered an impact, as I don't have access to that evidence.
But I can say that the pulling like that is very typical of someone that is not experienced in shooting living/moving targets and then panicking when the first round misses and trying to get back on target. I would not be surprised if the first round did not pass behind Trump when he turned his head (would have been on if he had not moved), shooter then panicked and over-corrected to the right, impacting the screen which fragmented, panicked further and pulled WAY to much to the left and just started pulling the trigger since he knew his opportunity was shot (pardon the pun) at getting back on target now so he wanted to do as much damage as possible.
And this would be consistent when you realize that the deceased and injured were higher in the stands, which would be consistent with the shooter pulling to the left for some reason.
This is the zone of the bleachers where the injured were. If you notice, they would be on the left side of Trump (as you faced him) or to the right of Trump as he was facing outward. They are also at a higher elevation, which would be consistent with the shooter pulling his rounds to the left.
The main point remains though, whether he was hit by shrapnel or by an actual round, it was an attempt on his life.
As for Trumps opinion that it was actually a bullet... how much experience does he have with guns, shooting living objects, seeing the results of shootings and being shot? Remember, this is someone who would normally claim there were 30,000-40,000 people present in his venues, ones that can only contain between 3000-5000 people. Trump has a history of lying/exaggerating to try to make himself appear more important/liked than he is.