You Can Ignore Allan Lichtman and His Presidential Predictions
He can’t hurt you
goodreason.substack.com
Disable JavaScript to see the whole thiing
The Trump downfall thread
- Thread starter Retro
- Start date
goodreason.substack.com
Disable JavaScript to see the whole thiing
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
This is pretty sinister.
The Supreme Court is so in Trump's pocket, that they're willing to subvert the election in Arizona and likely elswhere too, to make sure he "wins".
The best way to beat this is to ensure that the Dems win by a large margin, which doesn't look to be the case so far, unfortunately.
slate.com
The Supreme Court is so in Trump's pocket, that they're willing to subvert the election in Arizona and likely elswhere too, to make sure he "wins".
The best way to beat this is to ensure that the Dems win by a large margin, which doesn't look to be the case so far, unfortunately.
The Supreme Court Just Signaled What It Will Do If the Election Is Close
The legal warfare over the 2024 election is well underway.
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
Today, sentencing scheduled for the 18th has been put back to 26th November. I knew this would happen. Either the judge was paid off, or someone else was and put pressure on him to do this. It stinks either way.
Note that Trump's lawyers were pushing for this delay, so it's definitely in his favour.
Here's what CNN has to say about it.
Here's what the right wing Newsmax has to say about this. It's been reported neutrally tbh.
And here's the coverage from the BBC in the standard BBC Bland style:
Note that Trump's lawyers were pushing for this delay, so it's definitely in his favour.
Here's what CNN has to say about it.
Here's what the right wing Newsmax has to say about this. It's been reported neutrally tbh.
And here's the coverage from the BBC in the standard BBC Bland style:
Donald Trump criminal sentencing delayed until after election
Justice Merchan to sentence Republican candidate in hush-money trial on 26 November, citing "unique" circumstances.
www.bbc.co.uk
Let's revisit this. It looks important.
The Supreme Court Just Signaled What It Will Do If the Election Is Close
The legal warfare over the 2024 election is well underway.
I have a state ID instead of a drivers license, and I can attest that it is just as good minus the driving bit obviously.
Keep in mind that Arizona is a border state about the size of Germany in land mass sandwiched between California on the west and New Mexico to the east. The border states act as a buffer to the rest of the country such that federal law can be slightly lax compared to that of Arizona.
Near the end of the article is a little something about low income earners and affordability. The fees aren't high:
Loading...
azdot.gov
Extrapolate these fees out to the decades of validity and they become insignificant.
Arizona Drivers License Does Expire | Traffic School Online
Arizona drivers license will last more than 5 decades, but eventually it'll expire. It's so far the only state which allows its state issued license to expire.
www.myimprov.com
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
Following my post two posts above about the sentencing date being after the election, here's the opposite view from MSNBC pundits where they think this is the worse option for Trump, despite his legal team asking for it. See what you think.
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
After Brian Tyler Cohen (and myself) reckoned the delay was in Trump's favour, now he's considering the opposite view. I guess this one cuts both ways with the pros and cons, or a classic swings and roundabouts situation. Trump better lose that election, or he gets away with it scott free.
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
One problem that has been present... a lot of people cannot afford a state ID. So when you make voting dependent upon presenting an official ID, you also have to have a path to make that ID available at no/low cost to those that cannot afford it (typically the homeless, who ARE usually still eligible voters). Then to top it off, frequently in states you MUST provide your birth certificate to obtain an ID/license. I don't know a lot of homeless folks that walk around with their birth certificate in their property. So you are looking at between $7.00-$34.00 just to obtain one, and then the hassles that some states make you jump through to get it.
The issue in play is those that use the FEDERAL format for voter registration, which I believe is usually offered when getting a DL/ID. To top it off, if I remember correctly, Arizona will NOT issue an ID card or drivers license to non-citizens except with a few rare exceptions.
In fact, to get one legally you must have one of the below:
- Employment Authorization Card
- USCIS form I-94
- Permanent Resident
So when you take that into consideration.... the push for ID has a strong odor of stench of freshly laid BS to it.
EDIT:
From some research, there are only about 19 states that allow you to get a drivers license/ID card if you are not a legal citizen.
If the identification is a Real-ID style, then you MUST be a U.S. citizen or someone that has a legal presence in the US already - and those usually are not going to endanger their being allowed to stay in the US by illegally voting.
So, the stench from Arizona's GOP lawsuit grows from that from a few dropped piles of BS to a pasture full of it.
Last edited:
This raises the question of priorities: if a citizen does not have their papers in order, voting rights shouldn't be unlocked. This seems similar to me as requiring a passport to travel to another country. Does the affordability issue also apply here? Passports also cost money, no?
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
Here's one more reason to hate Trump: animal abuse. Don't worry, he didn't do the abuse directly, no, he just tried to repeal legislation protecting race horses from abuse. Mind you, racing horses is abuse in itself, but the practice described in this video is a horrendous layer on top of it.
Warning: video contains graphic depictions of this abuse.
Warning: video contains graphic depictions of this abuse.
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
Bullshit... sounds like a repeat of "your papers... NOW!".
Voting is not a "permission"... but a right and a duty.
Traveling to another country is not the same... usually that's a luxury... and if its work related, then having the funds to pay for them is not a big deal.
This is what pisses me off so badly with the current crop of MAGA cultist. Sorry... you don't have a home or lots of spare money... then you have no say in the way our country should go as you aren't important enough.
I worked a job where I regularly dealt with the homeless.... and no, they aren't all crazy wacked out druggies or alcoholics that commit crimes and have been in the pen.
Kind of like a certain VP candidate talking about cat ladies?
The desire of certain conservative people to dismiss others and happily disenfranchise them because they don't meet that persons certain standards is nothing but garbage.
Last edited:
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
@Astro What In the UK, voter fraud has never been a thing. So much so that one could just rock up to a polling station without even their polling card. Just give their name and address, the polling clerk checked it off a list and they were good to go.
However, the tories, in the last couple of years, introduced a voter ID scheme ostensibly to combat fraud, a problem that doesn't exist. However, critics accused them of really doing it to make it more difficult for the kind of people who vote Labour to not vote at all, since this put up barriers to them. People like the very poor, mental health issues, dementia, disabilities etc of which there are a great many, enough to swing the election.
Those critics accused the tories of sensing that they were going to lose the next general election, so used this as a way to help them defeat Labour. Unfortunately, the system is now in place, but thankfully, Labour won by a landslide back in July. I just hope that they don't end up just as corrupt over time. So far, it seems middling to me how good they are, but are still much better than the tories ever were. The tories still needed to be pushed out regardless though due to all the damage that they've done to this country, especially with brexit and degrading the NHS among many other things.
Of course, what Trump is trying to do is on another level entirely in order to cheat his way to a "win" and totally criminal. I just hope the system is robust enough to resist it. Here's what I posted about it the other day:
nerdzone.uk
These links will explain more than you ever wanted to know about voter ID.
www.gov.uk
However, the tories, in the last couple of years, introduced a voter ID scheme ostensibly to combat fraud, a problem that doesn't exist. However, critics accused them of really doing it to make it more difficult for the kind of people who vote Labour to not vote at all, since this put up barriers to them. People like the very poor, mental health issues, dementia, disabilities etc of which there are a great many, enough to swing the election.
Those critics accused the tories of sensing that they were going to lose the next general election, so used this as a way to help them defeat Labour. Unfortunately, the system is now in place, but thankfully, Labour won by a landslide back in July. I just hope that they don't end up just as corrupt over time. So far, it seems middling to me how good they are, but are still much better than the tories ever were. The tories still needed to be pushed out regardless though due to all the damage that they've done to this country, especially with brexit and degrading the NHS among many other things.
Of course, what Trump is trying to do is on another level entirely in order to cheat his way to a "win" and totally criminal. I just hope the system is robust enough to resist it. Here's what I posted about it the other day:
The Trump downfall thread
https://goodreason.substack.com/p/you-can-ignore-allan-lichtman-and Disable JavaScript to see the whole thiing
nerdzone.uk
These links will explain more than you ever wanted to know about voter ID.
Apply for photo ID to vote (called a ‘Voter Authority Certificate’)
Apply for photo ID to vote (Voter Authority Certificate) in some elections and referendums in Great Britain if you do not have an accepted form of ID.
Geffers
Linux enthusiast
- Joined
- 1 Jul 2021
- Messages
- 570 (0.46/day)
The Trump downfall thread is a hate or love Trump thread but I'd like to put a different perspective on it.
Instead of Trump downfall let's look at it from a leader of US point of view and a leader of the free world point of view.
During Trump's Presidency he achieved many objectives, the following were significant;
Negligible inflation
Moved US embassy to Jerusalem
Signed EO to protect free speech on campuses
Peace talks with North Korea, soldiers remains from Korean war returned, talks between N and S Korea
Kim Jong Un's missiles stopped being fired.
Large tax cuts
Over 250 miles of border wall completed or repaired
Got Mexico to assist with protecting Southern Border
Signed First Step Act re Prison Reform
Created Space Force to protect US from attack
Pulled out of Iran nuclear deal
Improved the NAFTA deal with new USMCA deal
Signed EO to protect religious freedom in 2017
Launched a mission to decriminalise homosexuality in nations where it is still a crime
Signed four EOs to lower prescription drug prices
Refused Presidential salary - all donated to charity
Now Biden/Harris
Afghanistan withdrawal embarrassment - an absolute disaster.
Ukraine Russia war probably result of Afghanistan
Gaza, also related to Afghanistan as well as relaxing financial restraints in Iran
Massive inflation started by huge rise in fuel costs initially exasperated by cancelling Keystone Pipeline
The blowing up of the Nordstream pipeline created huge issues for Europe, many prominent voices say this was down to US.
Shortages of products.
Southern Border out of control over 15 million unvetted immigrants
Fentanyl crisis.
Violent crime out of control
Record high consumer debt
Highest credit card debt in history
Highest bankruptcies since 2010
Agendas to support sex change
Potential for WW3 to break out at any time.
Here's the choice for US in November.
Just my view.
Geffers
Instead of Trump downfall let's look at it from a leader of US point of view and a leader of the free world point of view.
During Trump's Presidency he achieved many objectives, the following were significant;
Negligible inflation
Moved US embassy to Jerusalem
Signed EO to protect free speech on campuses
Peace talks with North Korea, soldiers remains from Korean war returned, talks between N and S Korea
Kim Jong Un's missiles stopped being fired.
Large tax cuts
Over 250 miles of border wall completed or repaired
Got Mexico to assist with protecting Southern Border
Signed First Step Act re Prison Reform
Created Space Force to protect US from attack
Pulled out of Iran nuclear deal
Improved the NAFTA deal with new USMCA deal
Signed EO to protect religious freedom in 2017
Launched a mission to decriminalise homosexuality in nations where it is still a crime
Signed four EOs to lower prescription drug prices
Refused Presidential salary - all donated to charity
Now Biden/Harris
Afghanistan withdrawal embarrassment - an absolute disaster.
Ukraine Russia war probably result of Afghanistan
Gaza, also related to Afghanistan as well as relaxing financial restraints in Iran
Massive inflation started by huge rise in fuel costs initially exasperated by cancelling Keystone Pipeline
The blowing up of the Nordstream pipeline created huge issues for Europe, many prominent voices say this was down to US.
Shortages of products.
Southern Border out of control over 15 million unvetted immigrants
Fentanyl crisis.
Violent crime out of control
Record high consumer debt
Highest credit card debt in history
Highest bankruptcies since 2010
Agendas to support sex change
Potential for WW3 to break out at any time.
Here's the choice for US in November.
Just my view.
Geffers
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
And in recent history it's never been show to be that in the US either. It's a dog whistle that is use by Trump and his sycophants because ultimately they can't deal with the fact that their limited world view is not the majority for the nation and they have been regularly getting their asses handed to them in elections because of that.
And they (those fanatics in the GOP) will try whatever they can to disenfranchise anyone who will not normally vote for them.
Funny... an unbiased report puts blame on BOTH Biden and Trump for the fiasco in Afghanistan. And when looking at ALL the facts, there is blame to go around to BOTH administrations.
How exactly do you figure that the Ukraine/Russian war as "part of Afghanistan? They had ALREADY invaded Ukraine and STOLE land from them before. Or is it that Trump hatred of NATO that comes into play and if Ukraine had never wanted to join then it would never have happened? Or do you buy into the BS that MTG spouts regularly from her piehole that is a direct like from the Kremlin?
Gaza was already being financed. Giving Iran back the money that they were LEGALLY entitled to did not pay for Gaza attack. Hezbollah, Hamas and such ere STILL being financed even without it. Yet one more dog whistle.
As for fuel costs.. .you DO realize that the US is generating the production of MORE oil than it EVER has in history? Yet one MORE dog whistle that is used.
As for shortage of products... well guess what Skippy.... that's happening ALL OVER THE WORLD. Pretty sure Biden & Harris didn't have anything to do with that but that COVID did... yet ANOTHER dog whistle.
Fentanyl has been being seized at record levels... yet one more dog whistle. How about addressing the problem of the users instead? Ah, but that's based on a socialism design paradigm... can't have no socialism in the party of "truth and justice".... never mind they push the antithesis of both for the top office.
And violent crime? Guess what... when you look at the actual rates as reported... it's down... but can't put that dog whistle away yet!
As for bankruptcies... when you become a consumer nation that has no thought of how to pay for what they want, they just want it now - those tend to go up. In fact, your two supposed "gotchas" are a prime indicator of that. And that, surprise surprise surprise as Gomer Pyle would say, is NOT something that the federal government has any control over. They do not (and should not) control how citizens purchase items.
And with your WW3 comment... I can tell you are a hard core Trump listener. Just because Trump is in office NOTHING bad can EVER happen because even the fates are afraid of him.
But never mind the fact that in one 2 hour speech he told over 120 outright lies and exaggerations. That averaged one EVERY MINUTE. And those were documented and confirmed as such by real facts.
Last edited:
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
Indeed, same lousy, crooked tactic on both sides of the pond. Assholes.
Damn, is that a record?!
Nice one on setting the record straight with the rest of your reply.
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
Like the pressure on Biden to quit over his mental acuity grew and then exploded after his disastrous debate with Trump in June, it's now happening to Trump too.
The debate is in just a few hours, so let's see if he gets humiliated by Harris and if so, there may be pressure on him to go. You can bet he won't bow to that pressure as he knows he's going to prison for sure if he's not president. However, constant criticism would lower his popularity and if we're lucky, even crater it, helping Donny to lose that election and end up in that fetching orange jumpsuit.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
nerdzone.uk
The debate is in just a few hours, so let's see if he gets humiliated by Harris and if so, there may be pressure on him to go. You can bet he won't bow to that pressure as he knows he's going to prison for sure if he's not president. However, constant criticism would lower his popularity and if we're lucky, even crater it, helping Donny to lose that election and end up in that fetching orange jumpsuit.
'Very Troubled And Very Desperate': Trump Biographer Spots 1 Key Change
The former president has begun offering "convoluted explanations" during his speeches for a reason, Tim O'Brien said.
The second American presidential debate (10 September 2024)
The presidential "debate" between Kamala Harris and that orange one called Donald Trump is being shown on ABC News next week. Unlike the first debate with Biden, everyone can watch it without jumping through any hoops, since it's not behind a paywall. This means that you can watch it in one of...
nerdzone.uk
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
I hope the GOP gets that way soon. It's about all they have now....
How did you like that answer that Trump gave to how he was planning on helping families with child care? Talk about a word salad.
And the sad thing is that either Trump is just telling more "tall tales" for his cult members, or he's actually so stupid to think that other countries actually pay those tariffs instead of those costs being passed on to the consumer.
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
The impression I get from everything I see of him lately is that it's a blend of both.
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
BTC hits it on the head again.
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
And just more proof that Trump & Vance are either blowing smoke up the asses of their base or they actually ARE that stupid when it comes to who pays for tariffs.
Geffers
Linux enthusiast
- Joined
- 1 Jul 2021
- Messages
- 570 (0.46/day)
Biden was Commander in Chief at the time, he cancelled the Keystone Pipeline, he cancelled building of the wall and opened the border yet you reckon he had to keep to some agreement made by Trump.
Well, no wars started when he was in office. No NK missiles fired.And with your WW3 comment... I can tell you are a hard core Trump listener. Just because Trump is in office NOTHING bad can EVER happen because even the fates are afraid of him.
Attachments
Astro What
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Jun 2024
- Messages
- 272 (1.61/day)
Keystone XL was generating generating nothing and was only 8% completed when cancelled. And to top it off, the majority of that crude that was going to be transported via it... was NOT destined for use in the US, but overseas consumers. So other than creating income for a Canadian supplier and a few refineries, it would not benefit the end user as for as amount/price of gasoline. One more dog whistle being blown.
It IS rather ironic that even without it we (the US) is the top producer of fossil fuels currently in the world huh?
Just a little factual information for you related to oil production and the top countries:
- United States Production: 21.91 million bpd (includes crude oil and liquids)
- Saudi Arabia Production: 11.13 million bpd (includes natural gas liquids)
- Russia Production: 10.75 million bpd (includes natural gas liquids)
- Canada Production: 5.76 million bpd
- China Production: 5.26 million bpd
- Iraq Production: 4.42 million bpd
- Brazil Production: 4.28 million bpd
- United Arab Emirates Production: 4.16 million bpd
- Iran Production: 3.99 million bpd
- Kuwait Production: 2.91 million bpd
Remember... it was Trump that pushed to have 5000 hard-core prisoners released as part of his agreement with them. And many of those hardcore prisoners were active after they were released in the overthrow of that country. It was also the Trump administration that locked the government there out of any reasonable input into the agreement.
I could give you a lengthy list of facts that are well documented... but I realize you would ignore them because they go against your preconceived notions because you heard it from Trump or his faithful sycophants, and we ALL know that Trump and his supporters never lie.
That's like his lie about 87 million dollars of equipment left there when the withdrawal happened... only problem, that amount was for the ENTIRE PERIOD that we were involved over there. Seems he was unable to read a fairly simply written report and homed in on one number without knowing that that encompassed... just because it was a "bigly" number. Yet one more easily proven lie uttered from his lips and relayed to his cult and taken as The Gospel of Donald.
In fact, he told one of his Presidential staff "As long as you keep repeating something, it doesn't matter what you say." And ironically.. his cult faithful prove him correct regularly. Never mind that facts seem to get in the way.
Now, for NK... how many of his missiles have hit anything targeted. If you actually thought that they were still not working on them then I have some beautiful beachfront property in the Mojave I would be glad to sell to you.
Meanwhile, Trump was busy writing/getting love letters from a known dictator of a hermit government. That in itself tells you a LOT about him. Classic narcissistic personality on fully display. Even his folks that he appointed commented on how easy it was to lead Trump by the nose by just telling him nice things about himself.
Oh, and as for that wall... when is Mexico paying for it? Last reports I saw there were no payments having been made on it by them?
And the sad thing is.. he actually only built about 52 miles of NEW wall. There were already barricades in place in the other roughly 448 miles that were as easily beat as his "unbeatable" wall was.
Last edited:
- Joined
- 4 Jun 2021
- Messages
- 5,703 (4.50/day)
That's it in a nutshell, isn't it?
What drives people to ignore hard, easily understood facts and evidence in support of their preconceived notions no matter what? It's infuriating and it's also very dangerous when it leads to support of a wannabe tyrant who could easily get into power because of it to the detriment of his detractors and his supporters. There are no winners in this scenario except Trump and a small handful of his Chosen Ones.
Never?
The "wall" turned out to be steel slats 50 feet high and buried 10 feet deep as requested by the border patrol. The brain dead idiots in the media circus always have a field day whenever strong storms knock it over as "proof" that the "wall" has "failed".
